Near Future Optimism

Life Expectancy Amid Existential Risks

Previously, we proposed global life expectancy as a reliable proxy for assessing the health and progress of civilization. Now, we must address existential risks (XRisks)—nuclear warfare, bioengineered pandemics, severe climate disruptions, or unaligned artificial intelligences. Here, Effective Decision Theory (EDT) guides us to focus pragmatically on scenarios with realistically meaningful probabilities, disregarding exceedingly rare catastrophic events.

Existential threats often provoke exaggerated fears due to their potentially catastrophic consequences. EDT encourages us to concentrate instead on credible, actionable risks. By this pragmatic standard, even considering tangible XRisks, humanity's outlook remains positive.

Historically, civilization has repeatedly overcome significant challenges—wars, pandemics, economic depressions, and authoritarian regimes—emerging progressively stronger and more resilient. Scientific innovation, technological advances, international cooperation, and effective governance consistently offset existential threats. Thus, conditioned rationally on realistic probabilities, we assign roughly 75% credence that global life expectancy at birth will increase over the next 25 years.

This position is not naive optimism but rather a balanced assessment reflecting historical evidence and rational analysis. Despite isolated vulnerabilities, civilization has repeatedly proven its capacity for adaptation and growth. Thus, prudent reasoning supports cautious optimism.