Radical Contingency
Embracing the Necessity of Divergent Timelines
Most people intuitively grasp that small decisions occasionally produce profound consequences. Everyone recognizes moments when missing a train by mere seconds leads to unexpected meetings, new friendships, or unforeseen career opportunities. Yet, most people believe these events to be rare exceptions rather than a fundamental rule of reality.
Brian Klaas, in his provocative book Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters, challenges this widely held assumption. Klaas asserts that tiny differences don't just occasionally matter; they inevitably and necessarily produce radically divergent futures. This radical claim aligns directly with the Quantum Branching Universe (QBU) theory, which provides a rigorous framework for understanding why Klaas’s insight is not merely true occasionally but is inescapably true always.
Consider a historical example: Sir Francis Drake's famous journey along the West Coast of North America in 1579. Drake narrowly missed discovering the entrance to San Francisco Bay because of dense coastal fog. If the fog had cleared even briefly, Drake would have identified one of the world's greatest natural harbors. English colonization might have begun on the West Coast centuries earlier, drastically reshaping geopolitical history.
This scenario vividly illustrates Klaas's thesis: a seemingly trivial environmental detail—the presence or absence of fog on a single day—can shape global history. But Klaas goes further: he argues such divergences aren't merely possible; they are inevitable.
Michael Shermer, in a recent interview with Klaas, demonstrates precisely the common misconception about contingency. Shermer acknowledged Klaas’s argument but maintained his intuitive belief that most small differences have little to no long-term impact. Like many, Shermer implicitly subscribes to a "rubber-band" model of causality, where minor perturbations eventually return to a stable equilibrium. Yet, Klaas—and the QBU—explicitly reject this model.
The Quantum Branching Universe explicitly formalizes Klaas’s insight: even minuscule differences at the quantum level lead to branching timelines, which inevitably diverge over time. While observers initially notice no difference, these microscopic distinctions compound exponentially. Within weeks, months, or years, timelines become unrecognizably different.
Consider an everyday example: deciding whether to cross a street immediately or wait two seconds. Initially, the outcomes seem indistinguishable—no immediate consequences are apparent. However, each choice sets off a cascade of subtle changes: whom you encounter, how conversations flow, and what opportunities emerge. Over time, this minuscule difference inevitably amplifies into radically different futures.
This understanding is not just philosophical; it has profound implications for how we view personal agency. Every choice, no matter how trivial it seems, significantly shapes the measure—the objective quantum probability—of future outcomes. Your actions matter profoundly not just in rare, special cases, but always and everywhere.
Klaas’s core insight—that tiny differences inevitably lead to radically different futures—is thus not merely a curious philosophical observation. It is foundational to understanding the nature of our universe. Embracing this truth, as the QBU explicitly formalizes, reveals the deep and persistent significance of every decision we make.